Macron politically benefitted from Ukraine war ahead of elections: Professor
A professor at Nottingham University has said that the effects of Macron’s mediations in the Ukraine crisis have helped his image enormously, though we have also seen the 'flag' effect reduce in recent times. But it is in stark contrast to Le Pen's pro-Putin record.
The professor at Nottingham University, Paul Smith, said in an exclusive interview with ILNA that Emanuel Macron and his party’s performance had failed to develop and put down much in the way of local roots, as we saw in the municipal and regional elections in 2020 and 2021.
1. What is your assessment of the first and second rounds of the current presidential election?
There were some surprises and some things we expected. After a campaign that never really took off, Macron did marginally better than the final opinion polls indicated, and Le Pen was further behind him than she wanted to be. Mélenchon was the surprise result, taking left-wing voters from Macron perhaps, but also from the other left-wing parties of course. Had the Communist Fabien Roussel not stood, perhaps we would be looking at a Macron v Mélenchon second round. Also, the collapse of the mainstream right against Macron was worse than we had expected.
2. How do you assess Emanuel Macron and his party’s performance in this election given the fact that they have been in power for the last 5 years?
To be honest it has been a poor performance. The party had failed to develop and put down much in the way of local roots, as we saw in the municipal and regional elections in 2020 and 2021. But Macron had a 'good' pandemic' if it can be put that way and looked like a statesman... some of the time at least.
3.Did Macron manage to fulfill the promises he made during his campaign for the previous presidential election in 2017? What is the impact of his actions on leading him to the second round of the current presidential election?
Macron's main aim was the loosen up what he sees as restraints on the economy and use that to re-energies France. Unfortunately, that was seen as a neo-liberal attack on fundamental rights and also made him look like the 'president of the rich. Those things may or may not be true, but of course, the pandemic then wiped out any possibility of those changes giving results.
4. What are the effects of Macron’s mediations in the Ukraine Crisis in his success in the current presidential election in France?
That has helped his image enormously, though we have also seen the 'flag' effect reduce in recent times. But it is in stark contrast to Le Pen's pro-Putin record.
5. Yellow Jacket movement and their weekly demonstrations are one of the most important political events during Macron’s presidency. What is the effect of this movement on the 24th April election?
Macron's way of dealing with the movement, in the end, was very successful, but it did not produce an end result. The outcomes of 'Grand Débat National'are still sitting in cardboard boxes waiting to be looked at and may never be. That is not to say that Le Pen has any intention of doing anything about it, but she will describe the gilets jaunes as a legitimate movement created by 'the system', of which she is not part. A lot of frustrated supporters of the left and/or the gilets jaunes may well decide not to vote for Macron to stop her as a consequence of Macron's failures on that account.
6. What is the right wing extremist camp situation with the leadership of Marine Le Pan?
Le Pen has her supporters to count on, plus those of Zemmour, mostly, and also some mainstream right voters might prefer her. But if she fails on 24 April, she will be finished. This is her last chance. Others are waiting for her to fail.