A conquered Ukraine is not going to be an easy place to own; John Colarusso tells ILNA

John Colarusso is a linguist specializing in Caucasian languages. He works in fields of linguistics, historical linguistics, comparative mythology, the size of the language, and international relations (culture and nationalism).

Below is ILNA's interview with this distinguished figure on the recent developments in Ukraine:

ILNA: While Russia has announced that some of its military forces are withdrawing from the Ukraine border, Kyiv and western countries have said that Russian claims are not true. What is the reason for these contradictory remarks? And what is your evaluation of the reality that is actually taking place?  

Unfortunately, as a private citizen, I have no access to information regarding this matter. Let me say, however, that there are several possible interpretations.

First, there was no withdrawal. This would simply be a diplomatic ploy on the part of Moscow to look reasonable and to blunt the diplomatic scorn articulated by The US and its allies.

Second, it could be a genuine withdrawal, but one of small scale and hence denied by the US and its allies in order to prohibit Msovow from gaining a small diplomatic advantage.

Third, some Russian troops may have undergone a rotation in order to rest and regroup. This is normal military practice and Moscow may have taken advantage of this to claim a withdrawal and so present some flexibility. The US and its allies have denied that such a rotation would be a form of withdrawal.

So, whatever may be the truth it is part of a diplomatic contest for Moscow to establish an image of being “reasonable” in some small way and for the West to thwart such an effort.

ILNA: Russia recently passed a bill officially recognizing the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.  What effects does this action have on current tensions between Russia and Ukraine?

Yes, I am aware of this duma move. It is a proposed annexation that goes beyond the issuing of Russian passports to those residents of these regions who wish to be part of Russia. It would make tangible in a small way the annexation of at least part of Ukraine beyond Crimea.

ILNA: Western countries claim that conflicts in eastern Ukraine will lead to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How credible do you think this claim is?  

The eastern sliver of Ukraine might serve as a stage for the manufacturing of a provocation.  It is one of the odd aspects of the use of force that befoe a nation unleashes its might, it feels necessary to indulge in legalistic and moralistic posturing. Luhansk and Donetsk may serve as the stage for such a scenario.

ILNA: How do you evaluate the role of Belarus amid these tensions?

Putin has helped Lukashenka, and now Lukashenka is returning the favor. That large military formations of another country, Russia, have been allowed onto Belarussian soil could be interpreted as a major compromise in the sovereignty of Belarus. Certainly, by permitting Russian deployment, Belarus has allowed Russian military assets to be within striking distance of Kyiv (Kiev).

ILNA:  Some believe that China is taking advantage of the crisis in Ukraine and expanding its sphere of influence. How credible do you think these reports are?  

I think China is watching the reaction of the US and its allies closely. The Chinese goal is to assess US resistance to the seizure of Taiwan. One aspect that China surely must notice and assess is the leadership of the US and the cohering of an anti-Russian stance throughout the EU and NATO. Even long-time neutral Finland and Sweden are now seriously considering joining NATO. It seems that the Kremlin did not anticipate this counter-reaction, or “blowback” as it is called... Analogous Chinese action toward Taiwan would likely solidify anti-Chinese policies across a large swath of East Asia. This blowback would have been easy to predict for Russia’s action and for any similar adventures on the part of China. The puzzle is why short-term gains, such as the annexation of Ukraine or potentially that of Taiwan are deemed to be desirable when the long-term effects are likely to be extremely adverse for Russia and perhaps China if it should follow Russia’s example.

What puzzles me most is the timing of Putin's action.  If he had initiated this threat while Trump was in office, he would not have met such steadfast resistance or perhaps any resistance at all. If he had waited until the end of this year or some way into 2023, the Covid-19 virus might have been no longer a threat.  As it is now, the Russian troops will likely suffer outbreaks of Covid. I can only conclude that some domestic imperative has led Putin to venture onto this path now. When a nation embarks on war, it loses control of events and lays itself open to the “fortunes of war.” Also, as the late Colin Powell said, once you conquer a place, you own it.  A conquered Ukraine is not going to be an easy place to own.

Interview by: Ardavan Malekpour

Edited by: Azadeh Keshvardoust