Recognizing the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk is a direct violation of the Minsk Accords; David R. Marples tells ILNA

David Roger Marples is a British-born Canadian historian and Distinguished University Professor at the Department of History & Classics, University of Alberta. He specializes in history and contemporary politics of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.

Below is ILNA's interview with this distinguished figure on the recent developments in Ukraine:

ILNA: While Russia has announced that some of its military forces are withdrawing from the Ukraine border, Kyiv and western countries have said that Russian claims are not true. What is the reason for these contradictory remarks? And what is your evaluation of the reality that is actually taking place? 

The claims clearly are not true. The military exercise in Belarus was scheduled to end on February 20, but the Russian troops are staying there indefinitely. The army buildup around Ukraine's eastern and northeastern borders has continued. I can only speculate that the comment was a straightforward deception. Most sources concur that the number of Russian troops around Ukraine has almost doubled in recent days. The number of incidents, explosions, artillery fire, etc., in the area of the Donbas patrolled by the OSCE mission, has multiplied. There is no question that an old war is being revived with the collusion of Russia. Admittedly, some of the attacks came from the Ukrainian side but there is no possibility of a Ukrainian advance into these "republics" as it would be regarded as a provocation.

ILNA: Russia recently passed a bill officially recognizing the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.  What effects does this action have on current tensions between Russia and Ukraine?

It is a direct violation of the Minsk Accords, which in theory are the main hope for a final peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the war in the Donbas. It also signifies that there is no incentive for Ukraine to amend its Constitution to permit autonomy for these regions with the Ukrainian state. But it follows the granting of Russian passports to about one-third of residents there. The Minsk Accords admittedly have been a failure but there is still a basis there on which to build, with the mediation of France and Germany.  

ILNA: Western countries claim that conflicts in eastern Ukraine will lead to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How credible do you think this claim is?  

Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 when it annexed Crimea. It violated territorial boundaries in August 2014 and February 2015 when the Russian army crossed the border to attack the Ukrainian army. After a lengthy period of stalemate, it seems to me that this war is being reignited by Russia with the full support of its puppet regimes, the Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics." It is very possible that the expansion of the conflict there will cross over into current Ukrainian-held territory, including perhaps the port of Mariupol, the remaining parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (oblasts), territories to the north of Korea, and east Ukrainian cities. I would put it differently, therefore: the conflicts in eastern Ukraine may lead to further Russian invasions of Ukraine.

ILNA: How do you evaluate the role of Belarus amid these tensions?   

Belarus has lost its independence in foreign policy and Lukashenka is committed to fulfilling Russia's goals. He is an unrecognized leader who clearly lost the 2020 election, and has remained in power by severe repressions and brutality. Russia is his only real ally, both politically and economically. But in order to receive Russian aid, Lukashenka essentially has sacrificed his state's sovereignty. Thus, with official Belarus' support, the Russian army is using the republic as a potential site from which to attack Ukraine. Belarusian relations with Ukraine had remained warm throughout the period of independence but today they are hostile. But Lukashenka cannot make any moves without Russian consent.

ILNA: Some believe that China is taking advantage of the crisis in Ukraine and expanding its sphere of influence. How credible do you think these reports are?  

China and Russia have indeed drawn closer together during this period of tension. The two sides perceive a potential partnership against a declining USA and weakening of democracy. As Russia has designs on Ukraine, China is pursuing more power over Hong Kong and an end to the lengthy independence of Taiwan and the Chinese national government. Russia and China also observed the withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Afghanistan. At present therefore the two states see reasons to form a partnership, reversing the situation of 1972, when China recognized the value of forming an alliance with the United States at a time of hostility with the Soviet Union. But the USA remains by far China's chief trading partner, so I think there are limitations to this new alliance.

Interview by: Ardavan Malekpur