Europeans have to deal with U.S if Trump re-elected; Expert

William Beeman who is professor of anthropology at the University of Minnesota talked about the U.S Presidential election and the results of that election to the international community. He says “Everyone is waiting for the U.S. presidential elections before taking definitive action.” Adding that if Trump wins, European has to find some way to deal with him. Right now the JCPOA is in stasis, and it could stay that way, but it would be rendered useless.

Below is Beeman's interview with ILNA news agency:

Q: Can US diplomacy head off conflict between the US and Iran?

A: There are many things that can lead to war, but not these futile "Snapback actions" on the part of the United States. These have been completely rejected by every other nation, and the UN has ruled that the United States cannot make them incumbent on other nations, because Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA. So the United State has failed in trying to enact these actions. Additionally, the United States had already sanctioned everything possible in Iran, so there was no room for Trump to do more.

Q: Europe has not fulfilled its obligations of JCPOA. Why did this happen?

A: The Europeans would like to fulfill their obligations, but they are hamstrung by the United States because of the dominance of the U.S. Dollar in international trade. The United States has threatened to punish any nation that uses dollars or dollar transfers to aid Iran. The Europeans tried to create another financial transfer system to bypass the U.S. restrictions, and it was implemented, but it was so minuscule that it had no effect. Russia and China are also trying to develop alternative transfer systems that would bypass the dollar.

Q: EU Chief reaffirms commitment to keep JCPOA alive. Will the EU Keep the JCPOA Alive?

A: It is still alive, and if Biden is elected, it will be available to be renewed. Everyone is waiting for the U.S. presidential elections before taking definitive action. The United States has done all it can, and has been rebuffed by the International Community. 

Q: Some believe that with Trump's victory, we will see Europe turn to the United States and destroy JCPOA. What is your opinion?

A: If Trump wins, this might happen, but only because four more years of intransigence on the JCPOA will render it effectively ineffective. If Trump wins, Europeans will have to find some way to deal with him. Right now the JCPOA is in stasis, and it could stay that way, but it would be rendered useless.

What people continually forget is that Iran and all other nations (except Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea and South Sudan) are bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which is a real treaty, not just an "agreement" like the JCPOA. Iran is in full compliance with the NPT, and so Iran cannot proceed to any kind of nuclear weapons development without withdrawing from the NPT. This has been talked about in Iran, but I don't see it happening.

Foreign Minister Zarif has just laid out a set of conditions for Iran to return to discussions with the U.S. over the JCPOA. If Biden wins he will have a similar set, and discussions could begin again. If Trump wins, nothing will happen. 

Q: Is Donald Trump going to win the US election?

A: At present he is losing. The question remains whether he would leave office if he lost, or would try to retain power through some kind of coup. We are worried about this in the United States. Our strange election system makes it possible for Trump to win the election even if he wins the popular vote. So the calculus of voting is very complex, usually coming down to the vote in a very few selected states where the vote will be close. Those are the states to watch.

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