U.S expert predicts “there will be more violent” If Trump wins reelection
A US political science professor told ILNA news agency that Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) certainly looks dead in a Trump presidency and he is unlikely to reverse his “maximum pressure” campaign this year, meaning sanctions will not be lifted.
In an exclusive interview, the political science professor at Louisville University Rodger A. Payne said "If Trump is re-elected; I expect greater domestic turmoil that could turn much more violent.”
The U.S professor believed that it appears Trump will not be re-elected, though the chance is obviously not zero and adding “A Biden presidential administration would likely be very interested in a return to the agreement, but it will have many domestic and foreign policy problems to fix and I’m not certain how high a priority JCPOA will be in the first year or so.”
He added that However, if the US returns to a relatively normal period, then it is possible a re-elected Trump could be convinced to negotiate a new wider security and trade deal with Iran.
“Trump demonized China for many years, and continues to do so in regards to the coronavirus, but he also concluded a trade deal with China several months ago and will campaign based on this during the next few months.”
Payne who has researched multilateralism, international security, and democratization of global politics, also confirmed that the prospects for a new deal with Iran are far from guaranteed, partly because of the views of Republican foreign policy personnel, but it is not impossible in a second Trump term.
Referring to U.S airstrike of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, he said “The U.S Congress voted to prohibit war with Iran. Almost no one wants a new US war, especially in the Middle East.”
“A number of Republican Senators voted for the measure, meaning Trump cannot even assure the political support of his base should he attempt to escalate tensions towards conflict.”
Answering o question about why the United States opposed sending oil to Venezuela, the political science professor confirmed “Part of the problem is Trump, but the U.S has a long history of meddling in Latin American affairs. Biden has called Maduro a “tyrant” and he supports stronger targeted multilateral sanctions against certain domestic actors.”
He went on to answer another question about the impact of unilateral U.S sanctions on ordinary citizens, said “Personally, I’ve always believed that sanctions (whether against Iran or Venezuela or any state) should be “smart” -- narrowly targeted on the elite perpetrators of the policies the US (or world) is trying to change.”
“Moreover, unilateral sanctions have a very poor historical record in international politics. Additionally, in the case of Iran, U.S allies and trade partners do not want to be compelled to comply with US interests via secondary sanctions,” the international analyst added.
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