Trump has tried to develop an isolationist foreign policy; Expert

In an interview with ILNA news agency, Oded Haklai who teaches in the Department of Political Studies at Queen's University in Canada said that the US would like the oil supply from the Persian Gulf to be maintained, it needs to provide support to the Persian Gulf states that are its allies. If it pursues isolationism.

Here you can read his full interview with Oded Haklai:

Q: Do you think there is still hope for Iran nuclear deal?

A: The JCPOA is one of the most important agreements signed in the 21st century. After it was signed it had the potential to lead to a warming up of relations between Iran and Europe and North America. The agreement deals with nuclear capabilities. It is unrelated to the crisis in Iraq. The Iranians should expect that when they are keeping their part of the agreement, Europe will reciprocate. However, they should not expect it to create lenience on other issues, because Europe delinks the other issues. 

Q: Will the US go to war with Iran?

A: َََِNeither Iran nor the US wants escalation, let alone war. The question is whether they can avoid it while still keeping what they believe are their deterrence capabilities.  Trump is up for reelection in November. His election will probably not be influenced by his Middle East policy. It is more likely influenced by domestic concerns like the economy and unemployment. If he loses, the next US president could consider rejoining the JCPOA.

Q: How has the trump presidency changed international relations?

A: Donald Trump has tried to develop an isolationist foreign policy whereby the US minimizes its intervention elsewhere and demands that its allies, particularly in NATO, contribute more. This policy has little chance for significant success because the US has geostrategic interests and requires partners to pursue them. The world is simply too interconnected for an isolationist foreign policy. For example, if the US would like the oil supply from the Persian Gulf to be maintained, it needs to provide support to the Persian Gulf states that are its allies. If it pursues isolationism, it loses out. 

Q: Donald Trump wants to reduce the U.S. presence in the Middle East. Does the US president succeed in pulling his country's troops out of the Middle East?

A: The US has had troops in the Middle East for decades. Currently, there are about 54000 troops in the Middle East (+ about 14000 in Afghanistan). The overwhelming majority are in the Persian Gulf kingdoms with about 6000 in Iraq. Given US geostrategic interests in the Middle East, it is very unlikely that even if he wanted to, Trump could withdraw all the troops. For that to actually happen, the US would need to be assured that its allies in the Persian Gulf are safe from aggression.

The Middle East had seen instability from before US intervention. Already in the 1940s and 1950s, regimes were toppled regularly in Syria and Iraq. Egypt also saw the monarchy replaced by an officers' coup in 1952. Lebanon's civil war, which started in 1975, was also caused by internal divisions and changes that took place in the Arab world, rather than US meddling. Jewish-Palestinian violence also pre-dates US involvement. It started in 1920 and intensified in the 1930s.  During the Cold War, both the USSR and the USA looked for allies all over the world, including in the Middle East, and meddled more heavily in the region. This certainly didn't help to build peace. One can be critical of US foreign policy, but to put all the blame for regional problems on the US would be turning a blind eye to some of the internal causes of the region's political problem.

Q: So it can be said that Trump has ordered the assassination of the Iranian commander to increase his popularity?

A: I believe the assassination of General Soleimani was meant to intensify deterrence. The assassination came after an attack on a military base that killed an American contractor and an attack on the US embassy in Baghdad. The US believes that Soleimani was responsible for those as well as other attacks. It also believes that by killing Soleimani, it deters the Iranians from using proxies from future attacks.

Q: Did Iran's attack on the US base in Iraq challenge U.S military hegemony?

A: I believe the Iranians believed they had to retaliate otherwise it would look like they were capitulating. The Iranians, just like the US, also felt they needed to deter the US from carrying similar attacks.  The tragedy of deterrence is that when both sides implement it, a vicious cycle of attacks can easily escalate. Neither side really wants that. Neither the US or Iran are interested in a war. This means that US military presence will likely remain, but both Iran and the US will look for ways to avoid escalation.

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