Trump has undone the years of progress in US-Iran relations; Expert

Brian Warby who is expertise in political economy and international relations and development economics believes that the Iranian leadership wants to make a show of operating in good faith in order to keep the door open for future agreements. He added “Trump is unpredictable and the U.S was making progress under Obama administration.

Brian Warby’s full interview with ILNA news agency is as follow:

Q: What do you think of the dispute resolution mechanism?

A: I think that with the US leaving the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions, it's hard to imagine how the dispute resolution mechanism can bring a mutually agreeable solution. Iran has much less incentive to follow the JCPOA if it is still suffering under US sanctions, but the other JCPOA parties won't accept Iran growing its nuclear program once again.

Q: European countries' stance on activating the trigger mechanism against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) unconstructive. Doesn't the implementation of the mechanism increase tensions in the region?

A: In a word, yes. On the other hand, I think the Iranian leadership wants to make a show of operating in good faith in order to keep the door open for future agreements. I think the remaining JCPOA parties are operating with the same thoughts. Working through the dispute resolution mechanism will show that all parties (other than the US) are interested in working together.

Q: What is the justification for refusing to issue a visa to Zarif for a UN summit?

A: I have no answer to this question. It certainly appears to be a violation of the UN charter. The Trump administration hasn't given any explanation or justification that I've seen. 

Q: The downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on Jan. 8 came amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States. What is your opinion?

A: Yes. It's certainly a tragedy, but this is the reality and hazard of operating in this environment. It wouldn't have happened if Iran hadn't launched the missile attack against US forces in Iraq. Both sides hold responsibility for this tragedy, but it was Iran that made the fatal error.

 Q: Why the EU did not activate INSTEX mechanism?

A: I think the better question is why the EU hasn’t activated INSTEX yet. Developing a new structure for trading is not going to be an easy process. There's a reason the dollar has remained the de facto global currency. It is stable, well-known, trusted and convenient. INSTEX is unknown, untested, and unlike anything modern companies have really seen before. It seems risky for a lot of those companies. Especially because they can go other places for the trade they want and the price is relatively small. Only Iran suffers greatly from delaying INSTEX.

Q: Do you believe that Iran can trust the Trump administration and sit at the negotiating table again?

A: Probably not. I almost said no without reservation, but Trump is unpredictable. If he thought he could convince his supporters that he negotiated a much better deal than Obama, he might go for it, but I think that is very unlikely.

Q: Where will US-Iran tensions play out?

A: I think the tension is unnecessary. There are historical and current divisions between the countries, but we should be able to overcome them. We were making progress under Obama, but Trump has undone all of the progress Obama made. If calm, rational leaders on both sides decided to resolve our problems, I think we could do so with some work and compromise.

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