Iran must stick to JCPOA deal, if wants to win

Kurk Dorsey is political science professor at New Hampshire University believes that The US policy will not change, and I don't see the leaders of Europe changing their policy either. So Iran is risking making the Europeans see Iran as the problem, not the US. He mentioned "If Iran wants to win them over, it probably should stick to JCPOA for now and then hope that the US elects someone else in 2020 with whom it can start a new dialogue. Dorsey is the author of The Dawn of Conservation Diplomacy: U.S.-Canadian Wildlife Protection Treaties in the Progressive Era (1998) and Whales and Nations: Environmental Diplomacy on the High Seas (2013).

Below is his interview with ILNA news agency:

Q: Trump's maximum pressure policy will collapse or it ultimately works?

A: The maximum pressure strategy has had two certain results:  It has increased tensions between the US and Iran, and it has sent a clear message to President Trump's supporters in the United States that he will take a hard line against Iran and in support of Israel.

Trump will not move away from the policy because he cannot see anything better. If he softens his position without getting an Iranian agreement to destroy any nuclear capacity, then he will hurt himself with his supporters in the United States. Trump needs those supporters to be enthusiastic about him to have any hope of winning the election next year.

Q: What is your advice to the Iranian government to reduce its economic problems?

A: I do not see anything that Iran will do to reduce its economic problems.  It could comply with US demands about its nuclear program, and it could reduce government control over the economy.  Doing either of those would be an admission of defeat or an admission that previous policy was wrong. Under the current pressure from the US, I do not see how the government of Iran could take either of those steps, even if it should.

Q: Iran announces 4th step to cut nuke commitments; so do you believe this policy is appropriate or not?

A: The US policy will not change, and I don't see the leaders of Europe changing their policy either. So Iran is risking making the Europeans see Iran as the problem, not the US. As much as European leaders dislike Trump, they distrust Iran more. If Iran wants to win them over, it probably should stick to JCPOA for now and then hope that the US elects someone else in 2020 with whom it can start a new dialogue. So the reduced commitments are likely to make it harder for Iran to make a deal in the future.

Q: Does the U.S.-Iran relationship have a Future? 

A: Negotiation is always possible, but in Washington and Tehran we have two groups of leaders who simply do not want to compromise.  As we saw in the 1980s with the US and the Soviet Union, it usually takes a change in leadership to break a stalemate like the one we are in now.  It seems more likely that US leadership will change first, given the election in November 2020.  Still, both countries could ease tension by not saying outrageous things about each other (or about Israel) or taking steps that tighten sanctions or reduce compliance with JCPOA.  Tension will also be reduced if each country is distracted by other events, such as the anti-government protests in Iraq or the on-going crisis in Hong Kong.

Q: In last month, we have witnessed protests in Iran. The Trump administration supported the Iranian people. How do you evaluate these statements?

A: Secretary of State Pompeo expressed his support of the Iranian people, which does not really mean anything--it is meant to embarrass the government of Iran by saying that it does not represent the people of Iran. Most US leaders believe that if Iranians could freely choose their government, they would choose a government that would have similar interests to the US people and government.  That may not be accurate. If you asked Pompeo how he could support economic sanctions and support the Iranian people, he might acknowledge that it is a contradiction but he would also say that there is no other way to pressure the Iranian government.

Q: Issuing such statements does not mean interfering in the internal affairs of countries?

A: Yes and no. Yes, because such comments are meant to send a message to the Iranian people.  No, because there isn't anything specific in the statements that says what Iranian citizens should do.

Q: The sanctions have hurt ordinary Iranians, highly affecting prices of imported medicines. Why does the US government pursue such policies to achieve its goals?

A: The US position is simply that the Iranian government can change its policies if it wants access to medicines.  At the same time, they would argue that many medicines and medical devices can be used for other purposes, so letting them through the embargo might allow for Iran to get things that normally would not be allowed under the sanctions.  It is difficult to find the right balance for sanctions and medical devices.

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