A hard and bumpy road is ahead of Turkey; Ali Rıza Güngen tells ILNA

 Ali Rıza Güngen is an independent researcher, recovering political scientist, blogger and translator. Below is his interview with ILNA regarding the result of Turkey's last week election.

ILNA: Due to the implementation of the presidential system in Turkey and Erdogan’s victory, what is the perspective for the future of this country?

A hard and bumpy road is ahead. It is not possible to foresee a clear path. A de facto presidential system and the gradual abolishment of the rule of law was observed since the 2014 presidential elections. The state of emergency after mid-2016 blurred the future expectations. For conservative hardliners, Turkey is fighting against global conspiracy and foreign powers. For liberals, the country is sliding towards further authoritarianism.

My own perspective is rather a historical one. Turkey is experiencing neoliberal authoritarianism since the 1980s and the shift to presidential system is a further step in the consolidation of one-man rule, which is actually taking place since the late 2000s. New form of regime will create more controversies than expected but it will be harder for opponents to organize political campaigns. Political and economic instability is not over.

ILNA: Western enthusiasm for the victory of Erdogan has not been so passionate. How will the recent changes in the Turkish constitution affect the relations with West?

President of Turkey is a conservative and he believes he can fix the country by fighting Kemalists, insulting leftists and progressive forces. He also knows that denigrating West will help him in the election campaigns. Since the Turkish constitution gives extraordinary powers to the president and Erdogan himself suggested that he will bring down interest rates, many pundits expect direct intervention into financial markets and heterodox policy measures for the economy. Also his words on foreign powers suggest he will move further away from Western bloc. I think, we will observe tense relations with the West, but I do not believe that this will result in a break, since the Turkish economy cannot cope with it.

ILNA: While many polls showed that the election would drawn to the second round, what factors led to Erdogan's victory in the first round of the election?

The fear that Erdogan’s leaving will result in a deepening crisis, chaos and deteriorating living conditions was effective. Opposition gained notable ground but they did not have an alternative economic program to gain further support. An alternative program was not competing, so working classes, middle classes and the poor supported Erdogan heavily.

The video recordings and events in the election day suggest there was vote rigging, but it was less notable compared to the 2017 referendum (the statistical analyses suggest that “yes” bloc should have lost in the 2017 referendum, if there was no fraud). We can still comfortably say, electoral fraud, though not large-scale, and manipulation by the media also played roles in Erdoğan defeating his opponents in the first round.

ILNA: Given the new authority of Erdoğan, which allows him to defeat the insurgents, what will become of Kurds in the new era of his presidency?

This is a question with no answer. Depending on local politics, from one third to half of the people in heavily Kurdish populated areas support Erdogan and his former ruling party. Erdogan gained huge support in 2013-14 during the solution process, and suffered from losses of vote in 2015. Since his presidency and the parliamentary majority depends partly, but not wholly, to the fascist party from now on, it will be a surprise to see renewed negotiations for a solution to what is known as the Kurdish problem. He also maintained in his 2018 campaign that the Kurdish problem is over thanks to his policies, which is absurd to say the least.

There is a lot at stake in Northern Syria and Iraq. I do not believe that Erdogan himself, or his policy makers can follow a path on their own. Not any more… The fate of Kurds and Turks will be determined in accordance with the regional wars, regional negotiations as well as the global power play.

ILNA: What is Erdogan's economic doctrine for his new presidential term?

He promises more of the same and it is a huge problem. He does not have the room for maneuver that he had in 2010-12. After the 2016 coup attempt, the initial response of the Justice and Development Party (the AKP) to the economic collapse in the third quarter of 2016 was increasing public expenditures. Tax discounts and further incentives for private sector employed before the 2017 referendum continued afterwards. These however squeezed the state revenues and cannot be relied on for the following years. Interest rates are the highest in a decade and Turkish Lira’s performance is the worst in two decades. Turkey also needs to find 240 billions of dollars to rollover private and public sector debt and to finance the current account deficit.

With zombie firms dominating the economy and accumulated financial risks of small and medium scale entrepreneurs, it is highly probable that Turkey will knock the door of international investors for debt rescheduling in 2019. Erdogan’s new-developmentalist consultants do not have a systematic program and the neoliberal mind-set is powerful in most of the Islamist cadres, if not in all of them. They seem to have no alternative to what they already used as economic blueprints. Though not the most loyal one, Erdogan has been a neoliberal in the last 15 years. There is no reason to think that he will behave totally different in the coming months.

In the election campaign, Erdogan and the AKP promised 1 million extra employment in each year, increasing export volume substantially, constructing and enlarging private industrial zones as well as making technological investments. He promised increased welfare for the masses in the short and medium term. Achieving these targets are highly improbable unless a huge capital inflow to Turkey occurs. As we saw in the spring of 2018, emerging markets suffer from capital outflows due to the FED interest rate hikes and the possible trade wars. Turkey is no exception and this makes it harder for Erdogan to achieve his alleged targets.