JCPOA to be revived in October/parties should remind Biden of Trump’s folly: Professor

John Colarusso said in an exclusive interview with ILNA that It is useful for the other parties to remind the Biden administration of Trump’s folly in order to create more flexibility in the negotiations.

You can read the full Interview with John Colarusso Regarding the latest Developments in Iranian Nuclear Deal Revival below:

1. During the nuclear talks, united states accused Iran of wasting time. One the other hand American officials themselves responded to European Union after 10 days. Their delay even led to criticism from Josep Borrell. How do you evaluate this statement?

This is an example of moral dominance, trying to make your opposite look as though they are not being serious or are in some way trying to drag out negotiations. It is not a common move, but it is used in negotiations. Counter repsonses generakly serve to start negotioantions in a more efficient form.

2. Some believe that since the beginning of the new round of negotiations, the Biden administration was hesitant to make necessary decisions and present negotiation initiatives to advance the negotiations, and now, as the congressional elections are approaching in November, they are under pressure. How do you evaluate this proposition?

Yes, the Biden administration would like to show some results of the talks before the mid-term elections. The talks seemed to have a number of stumbling blocks or proposals that were ambiguous.  It is likely that Biden himself may have offerd some clarity in order to speed up the talks.

3. While 15 American institutions wrote to Biden in support of the JCPOA, in your opinion, how much does this issue indicate the desire of the American elites to return to this agreement and how much can it help the Biden administration against the pressure of JCPOA opponents?

Many of the factions want the JCPOA or some agreement like it. Their goal is to limit the form of conflict in the Middle East, speficially to avrt a nuclear arms race, which could be very destabilizing. An effort to lend support to the Biden efforts can only help.

4. Although Israel is not a member of this agreement and negotiation, it has repeatedly admitted that even in the event of an agreement, it will use all its means to prevent the progress of Iran's nuclear program. What is the basis for this selfishness? Why are these interventions not dealt with by international institutions? And how much do you approve of Israel’s pressure on the Atomic Energy Organization and the US government?

Israel sees itself as the target of Iran’s nuclear efforts, so it will take extreme efforts if no agreement is reached.

5. In a situation where America, despite its silence, is trying to escape from the growing internal pressures and show Iran defeated, what behavior should Iran put on its agenda? What is Europe's duty towards this American behavior?

One migth see America’s actions as an effort to defeat Iran, but I think this is an error. To me the current administration wants to show that it has influence and that it can persuafe Iran to cease any nuclear arms pursuit. I is a form of compensation for the debacle of North Korea.

6. How necessary is it for the other parties to the agreement to repeatedly remind America that Washington is the party that has left the agreement and emphasize that it should back down from its irrational demands?

It is useful for the other parties to remind the Biden administration of Trump’s folly in order to create more flexibility in the negotiations. “Irrational demands” have rational foundations. They simply push one side of the “table” beyond what they are willing to entertain. Often some minor changes in such demands can open up a path to acceptance of some sort.

7. Iran has announced that in order to prevent a repeat of the 2018 incident (Trump withdrawing from JCPOA), the United States must give a guarantee for the withdrawal of the parties from this agreement. How reasonable do you think this demand of Iran is?

It is a mraningful demand, but it is one that cannot be offered by the executive branch of the US government. It is something that would have to be codified in law by the Congress. Iran should specifically suggest this, because this potential agreemnt is very important.

8. What is your prediction of the result of the efforts to revive the JCPOA? To you, if the parties agree, how long will it take until we see the revival of the JCPOA?

I think it can be agreed to on paper by this October, in time for the elections - at least in some preliminary form subject to “fine tuning.” The new agreement (JCPOA or some variant) will probably be revived at the beginning of 2023.

9. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency traveled to Israel when we are on the verge of revitalizing the JCPOA and from there spoke against Iran's nuclear program, while everyone knows that the Israeli regime has not accepted any framework for its nuclear programs and is not willing to allow access to agency officials. On the other hand, Iran has repeatedly allowed this access to agency experts within the framework of the NPT and JCPOA provisions, and the peacefulness of Tehran's nuclear activities has been confirmed many times. How do you evaluate this double standard?

This is called “politics”.