war crises in Ukraine, Biden may pay for it: professor

Igor Lukes who is a professor at Boston University tells in an exclusive interview with ILNA news agency that the rising cost of energy as a result of the Ukraine crisis is bound to have serious consequences on the global scale. Millions of people feel it when they receive their electricity bill or fill up their cars. The voters are unhappy and many politicians, including President Biden, may pay for it in the coming elections.

You can read the full interview with ILNA news agency as follows:

During the past few weeks, we have been witnessing a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. How do you evaluate the short-term and long-term developments regarding this conflict? Do you think the current conflict will lead to a war of attrition?

Putin’s tanks and heavy artillery will eventually punch through Ukrainian positions, or a negotiated stalemate will be achieved. Then what? Who will rebuild and govern the defeated land? How? Before the war, General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had told Congress that the Russian Army would take Kyiv in 72 hours. This has not happened. And the long-term perspective? The Ukrainians know how to resist by unconventional means. Suppressing the anti-Soviet guerrillas after the end of World War II took 100,000 lives. Let it be a warning to the FSB.

There are concerns regarding the condition of the Chernobyl nuclear plant. Is it possible that Russia uses the security of this nuclear plant as a means to advance its own goals?

After the initial—very alarming— news involving Chernobyl, we have heard only speculation that the Russians cut off electricity for the enterprise, a potentially dangerous step. Some have speculated that the rush to establish Russian control over such sites may be motivated by a secret plan to carry out a false-flag terrorist operation involving one of the many nuclear reactors now operating in Ukraine. However, I’ve seen no evidence in support of this speculation. We must only hope that no one would seriously consider such a tragic step.

How do you evaluate the prospects of Moscow and Minsk’s relations following the current conflicts? What would Belarus and in particular Lukashenko demand from Putin in exchange for supporting him in his struggle with the international community?

Lukashenka had to accept Moscow’s help in suppressing his own people. This meant that he lost the privilege of being viewed as a legitimate sovereign. Even worse, Belarus allowed Putin to deploy the Russian army on its territory on the eve of the war on Ukraine. It has thus become a Russian colony. I’m no longer able to believe that it is an autonomous player on the international scene. Lukashenka is Putin’s poodle.

In light of the current war, how do you predict Putin’s political future?

Had Putin taken Kyiv and conquered Ukraine with minimal losses, he would have grown further in the eyes of the Russian public. He has not achieved this objective. Such a failure would be troubling for any leader. Bread and victory are what voters expect from a leader in return for putting up with the loss of freedom. It is expecting too much for Putin to ask his subjects to be unfree, hungry, and defeated. He is now fighting for his political life.

What will be the effect of Russia and Ukraine war on global energy equations?

As is the case with every crisis, this one consists of danger and opportunity. The rising cost of energy is bound to have serious consequences on the global scale. Millions of people feel it when they receive their electricity bill or fill up their cars. The voters are unhappy and many politicians, including President Biden, may pay for it in the coming elections. But I would like to believe that the energy crisis will cause developing countries, especially the United States, to invest more in alternative sources of clean energy and into public transportation. Driving less will be good for the environment.