No guarantee the next US administration will stick to Vienna deal; Expert

Ume Farwa believes that the Biden administration has much to compensate for the damage Trump inflicted upon the US image and its political clout in the world and says "The Biden administration's efforts to restore the US image at home and abroad lack the true spirit which is needed to carry through this task." The international analyst continues that now the global power dynamics have changed. A new global power, China, is rising while the other major powers are either making a comeback to the international arena. Ms. Ume Farwa is Research Associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). She is a gold-medalist in M.Sc. International Relations from National University of Modern Languages (NUML) Islamabad. She has been working on many issues related to Pakistan and China. Her area of research is Russia, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

You can read her full interview with ILNA news agency as follows:

Q: There is positive news from Vienna and the United States has lifted some of the Donald Trump era sanctions. What are the current obstacles to reviving JCPOA?

A: The path to reviving JCPOA is still unclear and it is one of the biggest reasons for the delay.  There is no guarantee if the next US administration will stick to the deal. This increases the risk factor and heightens the vulnerability of Tehran in case of any future miscommitment. It is also not clear how the other parties of the agreement would decide to choose if the US fails to abide by its international commitments and hit Iran with another round of economic sanctions.

The mistrust in Washington-Tehran ties are at its peak and the fact that the two states are not engaging in a direct dialogue with each other on this issue is also a hindering factor. What will cause more delays is the lack of direct talks between the technical experts from both sides.

Q: What should the Biden administration do to restore assurance and increase trust in nuclear talks?

A: The world are witnessed how Donald Trump failed when he resorted to threats and bullying in the name of "America First" policy. Failures of his policy of employing threats and bullying led him nowhere. The Biden administration has much to compensate for the damage Trump inflicted upon the US image and its political clout in the world. I don't see escalating Israeli-American threats would lead the negotiation anywhere.

Q: In the negotiation process, we see that some contradictory statements are made by all parties, including Europe, United States, Iran, Russia and China, and the content of the negotiations is completely vague. Why are the perceptions of each side of the negotiations vague and different?

A: This has much to do with the evolving dynamics of the existing world order than with the Iran Deal. There is not a single international issue where all the aforementioned countries speak with one voice. Lets begin with the issue of Climate Change. In the Biden's World Climate Summit, the statements of the major powers were as vague and contradictory as one could imagine. Later on, the Glasgow Conference met the same fate.

However, the biggest problem is that the current international arms control, disarmament, and nuclear non-proliferation regime has become fragile. With the rise of new powers, the new rules and regulations could be in the offing and a few modifications in the previous ones are the need of time. Unless a new global hierarchy is established among major powers, these contradictory statements and behaviours will continue.

Q: It has been reported in some news that Britain, France and Germany are seeking to increase concessions and reduce Iran's interests, which has also been disputed by the United States. What do you think is the reason for this gap?

A: It is because European powers themselves are in a fix. Their situation can be compared with "damned if we do, damned if we don't". However, their biggest fear is the possibility of US hitting Iran with more sanctions and in that scenario, they will also be hit hard financially.

In fact, they are looking for their own interests instead of Iran's. Sadly, this is how the world is being operated right now on the basis of self-centered interests instead of just principles.

Q: In such circumstances, it can be said that the Vienna talks will reach a final conclusion soon?

A: Right now, there seems no clear basis for future talks on JCPOA. The Biden administration's efforts to restore the US image at home and abroad lack the true spirit which is needed to carry through this task. And, if a minus-US deal happens, this won't do any good nor would it be credible in any respect.

Q: Some argue that the indirect dialogue between Iran and the United States has damaged the substance of the negotiations. How effective do you think a direct meeting between Iran and the United States can be in reviving JCPOA more quickly?

A: There is no denying the fact that a direct dialogue will surely speed up the process of reviving the Iran deal. Washington-Tehran ties are already shrouded in distrust and the level of resentment towards each other more than too often touches a tipping point.

In order to reach a better mutual understanding and a long-term agreement, both sides need to engage in a direct negotiation process including technical experts, statesmen, and strategic stakeholders.

Q: Iran nuclear actions were in response to the US policy of withdrawing from the jcpa and non-fulfillment of the obligations of other parties. In your opinion, could Iran have done anything else at that time, one year after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA?

A: This explains why mighty states not only rule the world but can easily get away with their crimes of hubris. It is unfortunate, on the normatic part of international agreements, how effortlessly the Trump administration revoked the Iran deal and now how shamelessly the Biden administration is pressurizing Tehran to revive the deal without compensating a bit.

Iran certainly had no other option except to face the loss it incurred by the miscommitment of the US vis-a-vis JCPOA. It had to do what a cornered state would be forced to do.

Q: If the talks fail, the region will see increased problems and insecurity, and the Iranian people will suffer from inhumane sanctions. What is the European initiative to reach an agreement that will increase peace and security in the region and prevent further suffering of the Iranian people?

A: As of now, Europe is in the doldrums. Particularly on foreign and strategic policy front, it finds itself mired in a catch-22 situation. This should not come as a surprise because Europe, after the end of WWW-II,had identified itself as a cohort of US allies and entrusted its defence to Washington. However, its partnership with America has hit a shaky ground. A Europe that is grappling with the dilemma of fostering alliance with a rising Socialist China and increasingly retreating America, cannot guarantee any state for its good.

Now the global power dynamics have changed. A new global power, China, is rising while the other major powers are either making a comeback to the international arena (Russia) or have become strong enough to assert their power (India.) Now is the moment of huge transition in the global power landscape and in this precarious global environment, any European initiative (whatever it may be) is bound to meet failure.

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