Raisi presidency does not change Tehran's negotiating stance; Expert

In an exclusive interview with ILNA news agency, Arhama Siddiqa said that Moreover, Ebrahim Rais is the first Iranian president sanctioned by the U.S. government even before entering office, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

"At his first news conference since his victory Ebrahim Raisi promised he would not allow the talks in Vienna to be dragged out. He has said his approach to foreign policy would not be limited and insisted that Iran's ballistic missile programme was "not negotiable", she added.

The A graduate of Lahore University of Management Sciences continued "However, it must not be forgotten that the impact of sanctions, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, has caused one of the worst economic crises in the country's history, with the inflation rate reaching 50%."

"In addition, COVID-19 is still a serious problem for Iran and pandemic-related restrictions have increased Iranians’ economic hardships. Hence, Lifting sanctions, especially on the oil and banking sectors, will be a priority for Iran now."

Referring to the Vienna talks, Arhama Siddiqa said that there is no doubt a determination from both sides to keep the JCPOA alive. The fact that there are still revivals talks since Trump pulled out shows that the JCPOA is no weak agreement to withstand all this. There is a sense that the alternative is worse for both sides—a growing nonproliferation headache for the West, worsening impoverishment for Iran—could be the incentive that breaks the deadlock.

Asked if the Vienna talks would lead to an immediate revival of the nuclear deal with Iran, she said: "In the short-term no. There are a host of barriers to the revival of Iran’s nuclear deal which remain firmly in place and it should not be forgotten that even after a JCPOA reentry, some U.S. sanctions would remain — such as restrictions on access to the U.S. dollar and U.S. primary sanctions. Washington presumably could offer to curtail these restrictions in exchange for Iranian concessions.  Thus, it is likely that in the medium to long term the Nuclear agreement will be revived albeit after compromises from both sides."

She stressed "And also Israel has been trying to derail the nuclear deal revival for a long time. It will continue engaging in a shadow war with Iran and it knows that if a nuclear agreement does become a reality in the coming weeks despite Israeli attempts to sabotage the process, Israel will then be the odd one out."

The research Fellow at Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad pointed to Afghanistan crisis and said "I can say the tensions in Afghanistan are increasing rapidly. When President Biden announced that the US would start downgrading their troop presence from July 2021. However, contrary to the previously optimistic estimates, there are fears now in the backdrop of the recent violence in northern Afghanistan and what can be termed as a completely irresponsible withdrawal on part of the US administration."

Siddiqa added that Kabul could collapse within six to twelve months of complete withdrawal of US troops. Another major concern is that the ungoverned spaces left by US troops supplemented by the focus of Afghan factions towards infighting could be filled by militants such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS."

"So Iran can play a very important role; Both Iran and Pakistan share not only borders with Afghanistan but also a unique cultural connection and henceforth, have direct stakes in the Afghan peace process."

She continued that both countries can also cooperate in countering threats such as those posed by Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Moreover, in order for the development of their economic and strategic interests, a stable Afghanistan is equally important for both sides.

"It should also not be forgotten that Iran is now formally part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and any instability in Afghanistan will affect the implementation of the deal aversely."

"The China-Iran deal gives further impetus for the CPEC to be extended into Afghanistan as well. Hence, both Iran and Pakistan can help to cooperate peace in Afghanistan through counter terrorism measures, maintain their development trajectories and continuing to facilitate the Afghan peace process by bringing all sides on the negotiating table," she stressed at the end.

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