US-Iran war is a fairly unlikely scenario; U.S Professor

Kaltenthaler who specializes in international security issues and the politics of the Middle East and South Asia believes that U.S. policy toward Russia and China will likely not change drastically but Biden will be much more likely to call out human rights abuses by the governments of those countries. He adding “We will see an attempt from Biden to reduce U.S.-Iran tensions and to re-engage the United States in multilateral institutions.” He is a Professor of Political Science and Director of Security Studies at the University of Akron. He specializes in international security issues, violent extremism, and the politics of the Middle East and South Asia.

You can read his interview with ILNA news agency as follows:

Q: Donald Trump has insisted he is not conceding the US election, despite seemingly acknowledging for the first time that Democrat Joe Biden won. Why the result of the 2020 presidential election was so shocking?

A: While Trump is refusing to concede that he lost the election, it was a fairly convincing victory for Joe Biden.  Republicans, in general, did not do poorly in the election so Trump’s loss is more about him turning off some elements of the Republican voters, namely women and more educated voters.

Q: Many Iranian believe US elections will have a big impact on Iran. Do you believe the same?

A: The U.S. election could be important for Iran but it may not result in much change in the relations between the two countries.  While it is fairly clear that Biden would like to get back to the nuclear deal with Iran, he is very unlikely to pursue that at all costs.  For example, if the Iranian government continues to develop long-range missiles or threatens U.S. allies in the region, the likelihood of an improvement in U.S.-Iran relations will below.

Q: Will we see a change in U.S. foreign policy toward Iran and other countries?

A: We will see an attempt from Biden to reduce U.S.-Iran tensions and to re-engage the United States in multilateral institutions. U.S. policy toward Russia and China will likely not change drastically but Biden will be much more likely to call out human rights abuses by the governments of those countries.  Biden is also more likely to direct criticism at Putin, a notable change from Trump’s unwillingness to do that. 

Q: How about Iran's foreign policy; Iran's leaders said its policies would not change based on the result of the US presidential election but Tehran's policies will change as the new US administration takes office?

A: That is a very important question.  It will take efforts on the part of the U.S. and Iranian governments to reduce tensions and arrive at a stable, peaceful relationship. There are some reasons to be pessimistic about the Iranian government’s willingness to change key aspects of its foreign and security policy that the U.S. finds threatening.  For example, is the Iranian government willing to curtail its missile development?  Is it willing to stop using proxies in the region to exert Iranian influence and power?  I am not sure the Iranian government is willing to do that so causes of distrust and tension will persist.  Also, Iranian domestic politics could very well see a more hardline president elected. If that is the case, it diminishes the chances of an improvement in relations with the U.S. and other countries in the Middle East.

Q: In this kind of circumstances, we are still living in danger of a new war or we will see the start of negotiations?

A: war is a fairly unlikely scenario at this time.  Iran does not want war nor does the United States or its allies in the region.  But, if Iran continues to move toward a nuclear weapons capability, that will increase the likelihood of conflict.  If Iran looks like it is on the cusp of creating nuclear weapons that would significantly increase the chances of an armed strike to stop that from happening.

Q: Will the new U.S. administration return to the JCPOA? What will be the fate of the Iran nuclear deal?

A: The Biden administration would like to return to the JCPOA but it will not do that unless a number of conditions are met by the Iranian side.  Iran will have to reduce its overall posture of threat toward U.S. allies and interests in the region.  It will also have to make it clear that it is destroying the nuclear material that it has been creating and stockpiling.  It will also need to agree to verifiable inspections. Thus, there are several factors that could affect the U.S.'s chances of getting back into the JCPOA.

Q: What is the best way to reduce tension between Iran and the US?

A: Part of the problem that exists between the U.S. and Iran is the nature of the ruling elites in Iran.  They came to power and have remained in power with a message of opposition to the West, particularly the United States and Israel.  They have also stressed their Shia identity and the role they play as protectors of Shia around the world.  Their identity and legitimacy with their base of support in Iran is tied to that.  Because of that political identity and the rhetoric and actions they engage in because of it, it makes it fairly difficult to imagine a complete normalization of U.S.-Iran relations.  Both sides can take measures to reduce distrust, but the nature of the Iranian regime makes it difficult to imagine those tensions disappearing.

Q: What is the future of U.S. and European relations in the Biden administration?

A: U.S. relations with European allies with improve.  Biden is a known commodity with them and is respected.  He is a strong believer in NATO and multilateral cooperation. Trump’s rhetoric of praising authoritarian leaders and needling democratic allies is over with the new administration. 

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